Photo: Shutterstock/Severe Weather Europe
Weather forecast for the summer of 2024 shows a dynamic summer atmospheric patterninfluenced by the transition from the warm El Niño cycle to the cold La Niña cycle. A series of pressure waves and anomalies are predicted to extend from North America all the way to Europe.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the coming months will be transitional period between El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cold phase)which will leave its mark on the atmosphere and weather patterns.
One of the main drivers of the winter weather and early spring was El Niño. The peaks of warm anomalies were recorded in December, but at the beginning of this year, a sharp drop in temperatures beganand the entire region above the equator is expected to go into a negative cycle during the summer.
A strong underground cold pool is the main prerequisite for the collapse of El Niño. The ‘warm phase’ is currently in a breakdown, and the occurrence of a very cold cycle begins in the late summer of 2024 and will last until 2025.
Based on all the forecast data, the website Severe Weather Europe reports that El Niño in rapid decline. However, such large events usually last for a longer period of time because it is the atmosphere takes some time to respond to these ocean changes.
To analyze the transition from winter El Niño to summer La Niña and to clarify what lies ahead, data from several years that had a similar transition were reviewed. According to these data, several significant changes in temperature and precipitation are expected.
Data show that large parts of the central and eastern United States and southern Canada will experience above-normal temperatures, while Europe can expect lower temperatures.
Severe Weather Europe states that the forecasts for summer, ie for June, July and August, indicate an area with above average temperatures and a greater tendency for heat waves over the southern United States, all the way to the northern reaches.
Another area located over the southern parts of Europe where the weather will be warmer than usual in most of the continent.
The strongest anomalies and tendencies of heat waves are over the central and southern parts of the continent.
In late summer, North America will feel the early changes in the formation of a new La Niña, as it is much closer to the source region in the Pacific.
The rainfall forecast shows normal to drier conditions over the far western and southern parts of Europe. More precipitation is forecast in the far north. Central parts with slightly increased precipitation potential are shown.
(Kurir.rs/Jutarnji list/Transmitted by: Đ. M.)
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