Putin – Shoigu’s broken love? The arrest of Shoigu’s deputy is the latest warning from Putin

– Russian President Vladimir Putin does not sign off on that (arrest) unless he sends a message to Shoigu, one that reads between the lines as “it could have been you” – David Silby, professor of history at Cornell, told Newsweek.

On Wednesday, Shoigu dismissed Ivanov from the position of Deputy Minister of Defense, as reported by TASS. A few hours earlier, there were reports of the arrest of Ivanov on charges of being received “particularly large-scale” bribes, as the court in Moscow said. The BBC reports that the part of the Russian criminal code under which Ivanov was arrested – Paragraph 6 of Article 290 – applies when the alleged bribe exceeds a sum of one million rubles (about $10,700).

Because of this, Ivanov faces a sentence of 15 years in prison.

Amassed a fortune on the invasion

Before his arrest, he was in charge of infrastructure projects of the Russian army. According to CNN, it is Ivanov was responsible for the reconstruction of Mariupola city in southern Ukraine that was leveled after months of Russian siege at the start of the war, and was often seen cutting red ribbons on various construction projects in the city.

His his luxurious lifestyle earned him a reputation in Russia and because of this, he was also the focus of the investigation by the Foundation for the fight against corruption of the late leader of the Russian opposition, Alexei Navalny. Maria Pevchik, president of the Foundation, said that Ivanov had “one of the most lucrative jobs that anyone can have” in the Russian Ministry of Defense. She claimed that he significantly increased his wealth due to the invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, Pevchik told CNN that Ivanov’s fortune – which includes a historic house in one of Moscow’s most expensive districts – was financed by corruption. Ivanov was under sanctions by the European Union and the United States of America after Russia invaded Ukraine, and is described there as “tenth in the overall hierarchy of the Russian military leadership”.

But his ex-wife Svetlana Maniovich continued to splurge in Europe – yachting in the Mediterranean, skiing in the Alps, living in Paris. According to an investigation by the Navalny Foundation, Svetlana spent more than $100,000 in a Paris jewelry store in March 2022, during the siege of Mariupol.

Ivan’s arrest a blow to Shoigu?

However, not everyone is convinced of the official reasons for Ivanov’s arrest.

The Kremlin has denied early reports that Ivanov’s arrest was linked to treason, according to Newsweek, while Ivanov has denied allegations of accepting bribes. As the BBC writes, his arrest is a rare move against a member of Russia’s ruling eliteamong whom many are believed to have used their position to amass enormous personal wealth.

– Given that corruption among top Russian officials is endemic, it is hard to believe that the arrest of Shoigu’s deputy is only about corruption. Either he did something that someone objected to, or this is a move designed to weaken Shoigu – or both – Professor Mark Katz from George Mason University told “Newsweek”.

And some Russian commentators said the arrest was a blow to Shoigu.

– If he can’t handle it, he will be the next to fall. This person (Ivanov) is 100% his man – said an anonymous source to the popular military “Telegram” channel, reports BCC.

Ivanov was widely regarded as one of Shoigu’s closest allies. The two worked together for many years, including when Ivanov was deputy prime minister of the Moscow region while Shoigu was governor of the region.

Why is this arrest a “message to Shoigu”?

Shoigu was often blamed for Russian shortages on the Ukrainian front, and among such voices was the head of the mercenary group Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin who is believed to have died in a mysterious plane crash after a failed armed rebellion against the Russian military leadership in June 2023.

Katz said the incident with Ivanov reminded him of the public spat between Shoigu and Prigozhin.

– This arrest brings to mind Prigozhin’s criticism last year about the incompetence within the highest Russian military leadership. Prigogine is no more, but the problems he pointed out remain – Katz said.

William Reno, a professor at Northwestern University, told “Newsweek” that the real question is not whether Ivanov is corrupt, but whether he and Shoigu have become centers of power in themselves – he said, adding that accusing a high-ranking official of corruption also indicates Putin’s sovereign right as a leader to punish, thus strengthening his authority.

Professor Silby said this arrest may be just the beginning of what lies ahead for Shoigu.

– Remember that being “too powerful” is not an obstacle, but an incentive for Putin to remove someone. The more powerful someone is, the greater the existential threat to the dictator – he said, adding that “it wouldn’t be a surprise if Shoigu is next or if he suddenly retires.”

The relationship with Putin was damaged by the failures of the invasion

As Minister of Defense, Shoigu is responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. But the failures of the Russian army undermined his decades-long rise to power.

When Putin came to power in 1999, he and Shoigu became very close, reminds “Business Insider”. In the same year, he appointed Shoigu as one of the leaders of United Russia, and in 2021 he was promoted to Minister of Defense. Shoigu and Putin are often photographed together fishing or hiking in Siberia and spend vacations. Apart from their love for nature, they also share a love for hockey.

But, failures in Ukraine led to discord between the two, claims “Insider”, recalling that Shoigu “disappeared” from the public in March 2022 for 12 days.

Despite the criticism, Shoigu remained silent, while Putin showed no signs that he might replace him, according to “Insider”. Mark Galeotti, head of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, told the portal last June, after the Wagner rebellion, that it is difficult for Putin to fire Shoigu because it is “a card he can only play once”.

– If Putin absolutely felt that the situation demanded it, I assume that he would be willing to sacrifice Shoigu. But since it obviously won’t have any substantial impact on the course of the war… it will be harder to avoid the suspicion that it’s not because of Shoigu, but because of Putin – he said then.