(Map) Russia and Ukraine: Russian forces advance on the Avdiyivka front

The capture of Avdiyivka (Avdeyivka) was a significant breakthrough for the Kremlin, secured just before the presidential elections in March, writes “Newsweek”. Since then, Ukrainian forces have been trying to stabilize the front line in the eastern Donetsk region, fighting the Russians in the rural regions west of Avdiivka. But, in recent days, the Ukrainian “Telegram” channel “Deep State” reported on the significant progress of Russian forces in the settlement of Ocheretine, about 15 kilometers northwest of Avdiyivka.

It seems that the Russian troops achieved, as the channel described it, a “breakthrough”. on the Ukrainian front there. These reports have not been independently confirmed, according to “Newsweek”.

– Pandora’s box is open – the channel said, adding that Russian forces “continue to gain a foothold” both in Oceretine and in Novobakhmutivka just south of it. “Deep State” also reported on fierce fighting in the nearby towns of Novokalinovo, Berdychi and Semenivka and updated the battlefield map according to the latest developments.

The channel states that “the forces are not equal” and that the Ukrainians are outnumbered in the infantry.

– Not to mention anti-aircraft guns, artillery and equipment – says the channel, adding that the situation in Ocheretiny “reveals a number of problems” in the organization and professionalism of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the area.

The Russians are on their way to capture Krasnogorovka

According to some sources, Russian forces have already occupied Novobakhmutivka, and have begun to occupy Solovyovo as well.

Some sources claim that the Ukrainian armed forces have also withdrawn from Solovyov, but there is no official confirmation of this yet, according to Russian media.

The factory in Krasnogorovka was turned into a powerful fortified area by the Ukrainian army. But now it is already occupied and Russian forces are in it.

The complete capture of Krasnogorovka is now only a matter of time.

ISW: Part of a wider effort to take the rest of Donetsk

Russian success in Oceretine seems to be part of a wider effort to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast, announced this week by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a major breakthrough into Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiyivka in Donetsk, but their ability to do so is likely to be reduced by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the front line,” ISW said.

A triple effort is taking place in the direction of Berdici, Oceretine and Novokalinov, states the ISW.

“Russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdiyivka have succeeded in creating three small salients along a front line about seven kilometers long, but each of them is currently too narrow in isolation to serve as a meaningful starting point for further ground offensives that would achieve a wide encirclement of the general area west of Avdijevka”, it is stated.

“The force composition, density and general terrain geometry of this area suggest that Russian forces are currently hoping to combine efforts from all three forward points to create a wider breakthrough along the Berdychi-Novokalinova line,” stands out.

How the collapse happened

Footage released by the Kremlin’s military bloggers shows the Russian tricolor flying over the destroyed village of Ocheterino. Russian troops reportedly entered the territory on Sunday, northwest of the town of Avdiyevka, after progressed about 5 kilometers in 10 days.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukrainian troops fled from Ocheretin in small groups under heavy attack.

That means it is Russia managed to bypass the northern flank of Ukraine’s recently built front line, including minefields and trenches. The village – once home to 3,000 people and a local road and rail hub – sits at the crossroads of the defense network.

“Forbes” writes that the 47th Ukrainian mechanized brigade is not responsible for the collapse in Oceretine, which followed the order to withdraw from the village for a break, after almost a year of fighting. It was supposed to replace the 115th Mechanized Brigade, but something went wrong. “Certain units,” as commander Mikola Melnik said, “simply “left the ****.” The failure of the 115th Brigade to hold the line was practically an invitation for the Russian unit to come to Oceretine and provoked a panicked response in the Ukrainian headquarters. They ordered the 47th Brigade to return, and the 100th Mechanized Brigade to launch a counterattack.

It is not clear what happened next in and around Oceretin, according to “Forbes”. For now, according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, Ukrainian forces are “holding positions in the western part of the village and maintaining fire control over the southern part.”

“Hard situation”

The regional headquarters of the Ukrainian armed forces admitted that the situation is difficult. It said the Russians were using “an entire arsenal of weapons against our units,” including “chemical weapons.” They stated that the Russians captured some buildings and the southern part of Ocheretin, but that “most of the village” remained in Ukrainian handswith the situation under control.

As reported by “Kiev Post”, Ukrainian military blogger Bogdan Miroshnikov stated on April 23 on “Telegram” that the situation is serious and could potentially worsen, although Ukrainian forces are still holding positions around Ocheretin.

– There is nothing good about Oceretin. The enemy managed to quickly capture the railway station of the same name and is now attacking the eastern part of the village. But the village is big, there is room for defense. There are industrial zones, tall buildings. The main thing is to stabilize the situation as quickly as possible – he stated.

“Hurried until Western help arrives”

Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine as Moscow’s offensive to seize territory before Western military aid arrives appears to be intensifying. The ISW said on Monday that Russian forces they may not have an “indefinite time frame” to capitalize on their recent successes on the battlefield.

– The Russian military command is likely aware of the situation before more Western aid arrives and is trying to secure offensive advantages before that opportunity is lost – according to the briefing on Monday.

A new US aid package worth 61 billion dollars is expected to arrive in Ukraine soon.